{"punk":1405,"name":"CryptoPunk #1405","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1405","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1405.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mohawk","Cigarette","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":31.6165,"usd":67133,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1586,"high_eth":34.2817,"low_usd":61914,"high_usd":72792},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8917,"high_eth":37.1715,"low_usd":57100,"high_usd":78928},"sigma_log":0.0809,"multiple_of_floor":1.04,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":31.6165,"usd":67133,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1586,"high_eth":34.2817,"low_usd":61914,"high_usd":72792},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8917,"high_eth":37.1715,"low_usd":57100,"high_usd":78928},"sigma_log":0.0809,"multiple_of_floor":1.04,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":32,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":32,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.2,"beta":0.0972,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":87.6},{"pct":-8.1,"beta":-0.084,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":74,"weighted_sales":16.5},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.0812,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65,"weighted_sales":6.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":82.5,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13105745,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":27.2609},{"eth":89.99,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13233587,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":26.8205},{"eth":98.5,"date":"2021-09-21","block":13265782,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":98,"adjusted_eth":30.8701},{"eth":115,"date":"2021-09-25","block":13295000,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":32.3704},{"eth":72,"date":"2022-03-26","block":14462721,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":111,"adjusted_eth":30.8499},{"eth":65,"date":"2022-09-24","block":15602088,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":176,"adjusted_eth":30.8991},{"eth":74.7,"date":"2023-03-20","block":16868147,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":237,"adjusted_eth":34.4125}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.5,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9132,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4064,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.869,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":2957,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6763,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.25,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":2957,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.1591,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.22,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":5450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1938,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":3860,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.9374,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":4777,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4089,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.67,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":5450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3986,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.25,"date":"2026-04-08","punk":5450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0245,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":111}],"summary":["Estimate 31.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 34.3 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 37.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Mohawk -8%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1405","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}