{"punk":1430,"name":"CryptoPunk #1430","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1430","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1430.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Earring","Do-rag","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":29.6163,"usd":62885,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.8062,"high_eth":32.721,"low_usd":56919,"high_usd":69478},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.2627,"high_eth":36.1512,"low_usd":51518,"high_usd":76761},"sigma_log":0.0997,"multiple_of_floor":0.9742,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":29.6163,"usd":62885,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.8062,"high_eth":32.721,"low_usd":56919,"high_usd":69478},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.2627,"high_eth":36.1512,"low_usd":51518,"high_usd":76761},"sigma_log":0.0997,"multiple_of_floor":0.9742,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-5.2,"beta":-0.0534,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":18.8},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0237,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.9},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0563,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.079,"date":"2017-06-29","block":3947340,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":46,"adjusted_eth":17.1543},{"eth":0.12,"date":"2017-09-24","block":4306181,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":26.0571},{"eth":37.77,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12959695,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":33.291},{"eth":53.8,"date":"2021-08-14","block":13023919,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":38.4828},{"eth":91,"date":"2021-09-02","block":13143586,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":29.1231},{"eth":96.99,"date":"2021-09-07","block":13179707,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":67,"adjusted_eth":33.1739},{"eth":67.5,"date":"2022-02-03","block":14131397,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":29.7607},{"eth":69.5,"date":"2022-02-13","block":14195423,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":232,"adjusted_eth":29.0659},{"eth":67.95,"date":"2022-02-18","block":14226916,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":68,"adjusted_eth":30.5168}],"comparables":[{"eth":59,"date":"2025-05-22","punk":2542,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.2594,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":51.99,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":3067,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.8109,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":38.9949,"date":"2025-03-10","punk":3067,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2083,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":36.9,"date":"2025-03-05","punk":3067,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9136,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8674,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3975,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.4092,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.29,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2062,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0898,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 29.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.8 to 32.7 ETH, 2σ range 24.3 to 36.2 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Chinstrap -5%, Earring -2%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1430","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}