{"punk":1436,"name":"CryptoPunk #1436","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1436","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1436.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mole","Mohawk"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-09","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-10T00:20:34.964Z","fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"estimate":{"eth":27.9962,"usd":59625,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.1207,"high_eth":31.2009,"low_usd":53501,"high_usd":66451},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.5405,"high_eth":34.7724,"low_usd":48006,"high_usd":74057},"sigma_log":0.1084,"multiple_of_floor":0.9209,"n1_eth":32.4045,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-10T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":27.9962,"usd":59625,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.1207,"high_eth":31.2009,"low_usd":53501,"high_usd":66451},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.5405,"high_eth":34.7724,"low_usd":48006,"high_usd":74057},"sigma_log":0.1084,"multiple_of_floor":0.9209,"n1_eth":32.4045,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T11:04:35.000Z","block":26384093,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1159,"age_minutes":6,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2129.7699825150853,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T11:04:35.000Z","block":26384093,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1159,"age_minutes":6,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4,"public_asks":743,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.4,"beta":0.0434,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":98.5},{"pct":-6.8,"beta":-0.0706,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.8},{"pct":-8.1,"beta":-0.084,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":74,"weighted_sales":16.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2018-12-15","block":6890512,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":33.0435},{"eth":3.01,"date":"2020-09-24","block":10927891,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":34.5298},{"eth":5.17,"date":"2021-02-02","block":11777376,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":42,"adjusted_eth":29.4874},{"eth":4.82,"date":"2021-02-08","block":11816963,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":43,"adjusted_eth":24.8353},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-02-22","block":11908307,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":27.166},{"eth":14,"date":"2021-05-14","block":12434511,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":27.4581},{"eth":14,"date":"2021-05-20","block":12471988,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":224,"adjusted_eth":27.9082},{"eth":16,"date":"2021-06-29","block":12726690,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":243,"adjusted_eth":27.954},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12923949,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":269,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-08-02","block":12947854,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":223,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":53.84,"date":"2025-07-30","block":23029277,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":422,"adjusted_eth":30.4}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.869,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":2957,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6763,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.25,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":2957,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.1591,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2026-02-23","punk":6318,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5685,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-02-11","punk":6318,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5425,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.67,"date":"2025-11-18","punk":2957,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.1783,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.98,"date":"2025-08-22","punk":4174,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.008,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.69,"date":"2025-07-22","punk":6318,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0816,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.59,"date":"2025-03-21","punk":5999,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1411,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1462,"type_multiple":{"sales":770,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0659,"median_multiple":1.0659},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 28.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.1 to 31.2 ETH, 2σ range 22.5 to 34.8 ETH, confidence High, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-09.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (770 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +4%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Mole -7%, Mohawk -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1436","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}