{"punk":1537,"name":"CryptoPunk #1537","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1537","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1537.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Vampire Hair"],"attribute_count":1,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":34.7535,"usd":73793,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.1166,"high_eth":42.9571,"low_usd":59701,"high_usd":91212},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.7472,"high_eth":53.0971,"low_usd":48300,"high_usd":112743},"sigma_log":0.2119,"multiple_of_floor":1.1432,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":34.7535,"usd":73793,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.1166,"high_eth":42.9571,"low_usd":59701,"high_usd":91212},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.7472,"high_eth":53.0971,"low_usd":48300,"high_usd":112743},"sigma_log":0.2119,"multiple_of_floor":1.1432,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 0-1","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 0-1","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":14.7,"beta":0.137,"term":"count1","label":"1 attribute (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":3.5},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1104,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 0-1","seen":{"n":16,"cover1":0.5,"cover2":0.625,"bias_pct":27.5,"within10":0.25,"within25":0.5,"MdALE_pct":27.5},"thin":true,"sigma":0.209,"selection":{"n":35,"cover1":0.714,"cover2":0.914,"bias_pct":6.6,"within10":0.571,"within25":0.714,"MdALE_pct":7.8}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.05,"date":"2018-06-13","block":5780898,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":108,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":0.19,"date":"2018-12-29","block":6976274,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":0.45,"date":"2019-01-19","block":7092955,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":48.8571},{"eth":2,"date":"2020-01-12","block":9263479,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":144,"adjusted_eth":106.6667}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.25,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2401,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.26,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9216,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.351,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.75,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.74,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3321,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":67.5,"date":"2026-07-16","punk":4822,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":63.2747,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36.9,"date":"2026-06-11","punk":9541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.3046,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.8,"date":"2026-04-03","punk":7072,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.8603,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":37.77,"date":"2026-02-07","punk":1590,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.453,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0701,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 34.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.1 to 43.0 ETH, 2σ range 22.7 to 53.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 1 attribute (vs 3) +15%, Vampire Hair -11%.","In the backtest, Male 0-1 sales landed within ±7.8% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±27.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1537","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}