{"punk":1586,"name":"CryptoPunk #1586","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1586","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1586.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Crazy Hair","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":36.833,"usd":78209,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2439,"high_eth":40.8096,"low_usd":70588,"high_usd":86653},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0046,"high_eth":45.2155,"low_usd":63710,"high_usd":96008},"sigma_log":0.1025,"multiple_of_floor":1.2116,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":36.833,"usd":78209,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2439,"high_eth":40.8096,"low_usd":70588,"high_usd":86653},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0046,"high_eth":45.2155,"low_usd":63710,"high_usd":96008},"sigma_log":0.1025,"multiple_of_floor":1.2116,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1197,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":65},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":99.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.09,"date":"2018-01-10","block":4885997,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":34.2},{"eth":2.6,"date":"2020-11-30","block":11359620,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":108,"adjusted_eth":25.0921},{"eth":3.4,"date":"2020-12-22","block":11505639,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":25.84},{"eth":4.8,"date":"2020-12-25","block":11524234,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":115,"adjusted_eth":33.1636},{"eth":23.99,"date":"2021-02-26","block":11930070,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":150,"adjusted_eth":34.7284},{"eth":26,"date":"2021-03-29","block":12135629,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":291,"adjusted_eth":44.5296}],"comparables":[{"eth":60,"date":"2026-10-21","punk":6066,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":58.3307,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2025-11-10","punk":3186,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8561,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":62,"date":"2025-07-30","punk":6066,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":35.0074,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.5,"date":"2025-04-09","punk":6066,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41,"date":"2025-03-04","punk":705,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":34.6704,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.5,"date":"2025-01-21","punk":6066,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.7931,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-01-15","punk":6066,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.26,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9216,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.351,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1282,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Crazy Hair","sales_12m":59},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 36.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.2 to 40.8 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 45.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1586","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}