{"punk":1781,"name":"CryptoPunk #1781","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1781","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1781.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Headband"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":36.833,"usd":78209,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2439,"high_eth":40.8096,"low_usd":70588,"high_usd":86653},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0046,"high_eth":45.2155,"low_usd":63710,"high_usd":96008},"sigma_log":0.1025,"multiple_of_floor":1.2116,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":36.833,"usd":78209,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2439,"high_eth":40.8096,"low_usd":70588,"high_usd":86653},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0046,"high_eth":45.2155,"low_usd":63710,"high_usd":96008},"sigma_log":0.1025,"multiple_of_floor":1.2116,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1197,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":65},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":99.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.14,"date":"2018-01-14","block":4905347,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":42,"adjusted_eth":47.2889},{"eth":1,"date":"2020-12-11","block":11432111,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":10.8571},{"eth":2.8,"date":"2020-12-12","block":11439138,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":79,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":22.97,"date":"2021-04-12","block":12223745,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":108,"adjusted_eth":34.0795},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2021-04-14","block":12239878,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":48.0245},{"eth":67,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081482,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":30.0946},{"eth":99,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13107819,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":32.713},{"eth":125,"date":"2021-09-29","block":13317774,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":35.3488},{"eth":71,"date":"2021-12-09","block":13772826,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":30.1074},{"eth":69.95,"date":"2021-12-24","block":13865646,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":243,"adjusted_eth":32.7151},{"eth":80.9,"date":"2022-01-22","block":14058298,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":36.435},{"eth":82.5,"date":"2022-02-03","block":14132751,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":36.3742}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":5559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9097,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2026-05-14","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.0781,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4669,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4669,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.5686,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-09-01","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.3,"date":"2025-07-13","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5438,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-06-24","punk":1812,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.3241,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1282,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":38},{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 36.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.2 to 40.8 ETH, 2σ range 30.0 to 45.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1781","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}