{"punk":1859,"name":"CryptoPunk #1859","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1859","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1859.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Crazy Hair","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7589,"usd":65312,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1997,"high_eth":32.4014,"low_usd":62001,"high_usd":68799},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.7196,"high_eth":34.1315,"low_usd":58858,"high_usd":72473},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0118,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.7589,"usd":65312,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1997,"high_eth":32.4014,"low_usd":62001,"high_usd":68799},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.7196,"high_eth":34.1315,"low_usd":58858,"high_usd":72473},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0118,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":{"ask_eth":31.98,"ask_usd":67904,"z":0.75,"z_text":"0.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-10-09T00:16:11.000Z","days_listed":31},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":51.5},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":34,"weighted_sales":15.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2017-07-02","block":3963163,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":41.4545},{"eth":0.39,"date":"2017-07-08","block":3992649,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":39.52},{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-06-20","block":7997998,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":28.0184},{"eth":0.35,"date":"2019-08-09","block":8317181,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":82,"adjusted_eth":35.4667},{"eth":6.79,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10952521,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":161,"adjusted_eth":35.6504},{"eth":82,"date":"2021-08-25","block":13097169,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":177,"adjusted_eth":31.6546},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-09-01","block":13140008,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":109.9,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13236244,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":32.7545},{"eth":80,"date":"2021-11-14","block":13610815,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":144,"adjusted_eth":27.954},{"eth":59,"date":"2022-02-24","block":14270476,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":405,"adjusted_eth":28.2679},{"eth":59,"date":"2022-02-28","block":14293010,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":26.3765},{"eth":69.97,"date":"2022-03-02","block":14304895,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":30.8721},{"eth":78.5,"date":"2022-03-12","block":14368911,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":33.8977},{"eth":79.5,"date":"2022-06-28","block":15041173,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":36.3702},{"eth":36.9,"date":"2025-01-04","block":21553965,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":126,"adjusted_eth":29.5355},{"eth":36.9849,"date":"2025-01-14","block":21619795,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":295,"adjusted_eth":27.49},{"eth":27.25,"date":"2026-04-10","block":24852285,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":150,"adjusted_eth":29.5963},{"eth":0,"date":"2026-04-15","block":24883523,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":206,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2026-04-15","block":24883523,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":210,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-10-08","block":26150894,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":598,"adjusted_eth":30.1679}],"comparables":[{"eth":32,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":8497,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.631,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2025-12-01","punk":1910,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7843,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.7,"date":"2025-11-22","punk":1910,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2068,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.44,"date":"2025-11-11","punk":1910,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5516,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2025-11-04","punk":1910,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.1261,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.8,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":8497,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0406,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.99,"date":"2025-03-27","punk":6718,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3268,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.39,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":6718,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6473,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0029,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Crazy Hair","sales_12m":59}],"summary":["Estimate 30.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 34.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1859","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}