{"punk":1873,"name":"CryptoPunk #1873","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1873","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1873.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Straight Hair Dark","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":36.9781,"usd":78517,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2251,"high_eth":41.1549,"low_usd":70548,"high_usd":87386},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.8531,"high_eth":45.8035,"low_usd":63388,"high_usd":97256},"sigma_log":0.107,"multiple_of_floor":1.2164,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":36.9781,"usd":78517,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2251,"high_eth":41.1549,"low_usd":70548,"high_usd":87386},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.8531,"high_eth":45.8035,"low_usd":63388,"high_usd":97256},"sigma_log":0.107,"multiple_of_floor":1.2164,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":39,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":{"ask_eth":111,"ask_usd":235690,"z":10.27,"z_text":"10.3σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-08-09T22:49:11.000Z","days_listed":456},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2095,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.4},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0224,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":111,"weighted_sales":13.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":27.99,"date":"2021-04-20","block":12279311,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":43.7029},{"eth":77.99,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14992577,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":251,"adjusted_eth":35.5723},{"eth":67.49,"date":"2023-03-13","block":16820702,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":185,"adjusted_eth":30.7647},{"eth":46.87,"date":"2023-11-01","block":18479092,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":415,"adjusted_eth":30.4}],"comparables":[{"eth":32,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":7877,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.631,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.9,"date":"2026-05-06","punk":7877,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3215,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26,"date":"2025-12-19","punk":4319,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7366,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":25.52,"date":"2025-12-19","punk":4319,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1877,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.68,"date":"2025-08-09","punk":4319,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2396,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.969,"date":"2025-07-21","punk":6253,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7131,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2025-01-09","punk":4319,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0033,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8118,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1871,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Straight Hair Dark","sales_12m":29}],"summary":["Estimate 37.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.2 to 41.2 ETH, 2σ range 29.9 to 45.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%, Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1873","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}