{"punk":1904,"name":"CryptoPunk #1904","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1904","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1904.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Frumpy Hair","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":33.4046,"usd":70929,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7918,"high_eth":36.239,"low_usd":65381,"high_usd":76948},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3835,"high_eth":39.314,"low_usd":60268,"high_usd":83477},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0988,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":33.4046,"usd":70929,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7918,"high_eth":36.239,"low_usd":65381,"high_usd":76948},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3835,"high_eth":39.314,"low_usd":60268,"high_usd":83477},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0988,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.2,"beta":0.0972,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":87.6},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":99.3},{"pct":-7.2,"beta":-0.0751,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59,"weighted_sales":19.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2017-07-22","block":4055798,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":85,"adjusted_eth":31.4483},{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-06-20","block":7998002,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":28.0184},{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-10-08","block":8704186,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":169,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":3.7,"date":"2020-12-21","block":11498590,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":242,"adjusted_eth":36.2839},{"eth":26,"date":"2021-03-02","block":11955858,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":47,"adjusted_eth":35.2857}],"comparables":[{"eth":37.49,"date":"2026-08-25","punk":8480,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1324,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":57,"date":"2026-07-21","punk":9558,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":54.15,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.9,"date":"2026-03-17","punk":235,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.6101,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.67,"date":"2026-01-03","punk":5227,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8629,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2025-12-12","punk":2266,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5426,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-10-16","punk":8480,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0248,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58,"date":"2025-07-29","punk":3730,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2805,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-07-24","punk":5227,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4061,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0305,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":111}],"summary":["Estimate 33.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.8 to 36.2 ETH, 2σ range 28.4 to 39.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1904","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}