{"punk":1912,"name":"CryptoPunk #1912","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/1912","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/1912.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Frown","Peak Spike","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":35.8808,"usd":76187,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6328,"high_eth":39.4521,"low_usd":69290,"high_usd":83770},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6788,"high_eth":43.3788,"low_usd":63018,"high_usd":92108},"sigma_log":0.0949,"multiple_of_floor":1.1803,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":35.8808,"usd":76187,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6328,"high_eth":39.4521,"low_usd":69290,"high_usd":83770},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6788,"high_eth":43.3788,"low_usd":63018,"high_usd":92108},"sigma_log":0.0949,"multiple_of_floor":1.1803,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":120,"ask_usd":254801,"z":12.72,"z_text":"12.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-02-10T14:56:53.000Z","days_listed":1732},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1197,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":65},{"pct":-5.9,"beta":-0.0612,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":15.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1,"date":"2018-08-02","block":6073960,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":21.7,"date":"2021-05-04","block":12369312,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":287,"adjusted_eth":33.8297},{"eth":14.5,"date":"2021-05-13","block":12428075,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":164,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":30,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12932142,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":252,"adjusted_eth":30.4101},{"eth":34.98,"date":"2021-08-02","block":12947430,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":31.9817},{"eth":83.95,"date":"2022-02-03","block":14135026,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":37.0135},{"eth":72,"date":"2022-02-10","block":14178636,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":268,"adjusted_eth":33.679}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.78,"date":"2026-11-06","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7905,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4548,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-12","punk":3758,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.6154,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6157,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.44,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2742,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-06-04","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6073,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.5,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":2830,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.3684,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.9,"date":"2026-04-12","punk":1429,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4795,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.102,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":39},{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":65}],"summary":["Estimate 35.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.6 to 39.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/1912","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}