{"punk":2286,"name":"CryptoPunk #2286","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2286","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2286.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Stringy Hair","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7212,"usd":65231,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1644,"high_eth":32.3612,"low_usd":61926,"high_usd":68714},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6864,"high_eth":34.0888,"low_usd":58788,"high_usd":72382},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0106,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.7212,"usd":65231,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1644,"high_eth":32.3612,"low_usd":61926,"high_usd":68714},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6864,"high_eth":34.0888,"low_usd":58788,"high_usd":72382},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0106,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":51.5},{"pct":-2.5,"beta":-0.0257,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":94,"weighted_sales":12.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.38,"date":"2017-07-11","block":4009401,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":33.0057},{"eth":1.5,"date":"2020-05-28","block":10156960,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":147,"adjusted_eth":33.0435},{"eth":1.29,"date":"2020-06-03","block":10189759,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":153,"adjusted_eth":31.6258},{"eth":5.05,"date":"2020-10-12","block":11043533,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":29.9551},{"eth":65.5,"date":"2021-12-26","block":13882163,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":39,"adjusted_eth":28.8999},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-02-26","block":14283303,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":1180,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-02-26","block":14283303,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":1184,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-05-08","block":22442164,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":314,"adjusted_eth":29.1525},{"eth":48.97,"date":"2025-05-13","block":22475954,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":235,"adjusted_eth":31.0208}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.49,"date":"2026-05-31","punk":3646,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1202,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8118,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.2556,"date":"2026-10-01","punk":242,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4877,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.47,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8809,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.032,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.7,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":471,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2376,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.41,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3813,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.9949,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4554,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9921,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.96,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":6149,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9594,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0017,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":48}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 34.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Stringy Hair -3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2286","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}