{"punk":2354,"name":"CryptoPunk #2354","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2354","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2354.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Bandana","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":29.2213,"usd":62047,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.5673,"high_eth":32.1403,"low_usd":56411,"high_usd":68245},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.1544,"high_eth":35.351,"low_usd":51288,"high_usd":75062},"sigma_log":0.0952,"multiple_of_floor":0.9612,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":29.2213,"usd":62047,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.5673,"high_eth":32.1403,"low_usd":56411,"high_usd":68245},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.1544,"high_eth":35.351,"low_usd":51288,"high_usd":75062},"sigma_log":0.0952,"multiple_of_floor":0.9612,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":99.3},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0355,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":13.7},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0763,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":8.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.075,"date":"2017-12-03","block":4668746,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":25.3333},{"eth":5.75,"date":"2021-02-03","block":11780333,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":149,"adjusted_eth":31.8397},{"eth":26,"date":"2021-02-23","block":11915398,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":291,"adjusted_eth":33.7778},{"eth":32,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12956022,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":205,"adjusted_eth":28.2053},{"eth":33.2,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12957054,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":194,"adjusted_eth":29.263},{"eth":64.9,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081683,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":689,"adjusted_eth":29.1513},{"eth":68,"date":"2021-08-24","block":13084903,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":27.3801},{"eth":73.69,"date":"2021-08-24","block":13085353,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":315,"adjusted_eth":29.6712},{"eth":51.96,"date":"2021-12-22","block":13852239,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":115,"adjusted_eth":29.3439},{"eth":58.02,"date":"2022-01-08","block":13961447,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":28.0192},{"eth":62.97,"date":"2022-01-12","block":13993617,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":31.9314},{"eth":65,"date":"2022-03-09","block":14351423,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":29.9621},{"eth":66.75,"date":"2022-03-13","block":14376265,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":9,"adjusted_eth":29.1175},{"eth":71.5,"date":"2022-03-20","block":14420891,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":84,"adjusted_eth":30.2099}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.99,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":9233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2905,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":9233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.094,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7165,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.15,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8746,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0614,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40.5,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5581,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2118,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":88.88,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4746,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":83.3164,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.88,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.263,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.1033,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 29.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.6 to 32.1 ETH, 2σ range 24.2 to 35.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Bandana -4%, Clown Eyes Green -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2354","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}