{"punk":2452,"name":"CryptoPunk #2452","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/2452","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/2452.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Earring","Headband","Medical Mask","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":37.2538,"usd":79102,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2698,"high_eth":41.7148,"low_usd":70643,"high_usd":88575},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7119,"high_eth":46.7101,"low_usd":63088,"high_usd":99181},"sigma_log":0.1131,"multiple_of_floor":1.2255,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":37.2538,"usd":79102,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.2698,"high_eth":41.7148,"low_usd":70643,"high_usd":88575},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7119,"high_eth":46.7101,"low_usd":63088,"high_usd":99181},"sigma_log":0.1131,"multiple_of_floor":1.2255,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":13,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":13,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1197,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":65},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0237,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":2,"date":"2020-05-14","block":10065398,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":172,"adjusted_eth":86.8573},{"eth":28.95,"date":"2021-03-05","block":11980205,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":49.582},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2021-03-23","block":12097411,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":318,"adjusted_eth":47.2889},{"eth":70,"date":"2021-08-22","block":13074902,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":94,"adjusted_eth":40.1509},{"eth":130,"date":"2021-09-02","block":13147749,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":81,"adjusted_eth":41.6044},{"eth":73,"date":"2022-02-24","block":14270981,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":34.9756},{"eth":49,"date":"2024-03-19","block":19470539,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":29.2136},{"eth":26.79,"date":"2024-06-23","block":20153213,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":198,"adjusted_eth":30.5597}],"comparables":[{"eth":35.9,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":8159,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.6574,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.3011,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-07-21","punk":4256,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.73,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.6,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4242,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2026-05-14","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.0781,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4669,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":1812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4669,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.89,"date":"2026-02-26","punk":7463,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4697,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1396,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":47},{"attribute":"Medical Mask","sales_12m":12},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 37.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.3 to 41.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 46.7 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/2452","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}