{"punk":3159,"name":"CryptoPunk #3159","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3159","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3159.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Handlebars","Wild Hair","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-09","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-10T00:20:34.964Z","fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"estimate":{"eth":34.9672,"usd":74472,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.0027,"high_eth":38.2064,"low_usd":68158,"high_usd":81371},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.2895,"high_eth":41.7456,"low_usd":62380,"high_usd":88909},"sigma_log":0.0886,"multiple_of_floor":1.1502,"n1_eth":32.4045,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-10T14:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":34.9672,"usd":74472,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.0027,"high_eth":38.2064,"low_usd":68158,"high_usd":81371},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.2895,"high_eth":41.7456,"low_usd":62380,"high_usd":88909},"sigma_log":0.0886,"multiple_of_floor":1.1502,"n1_eth":32.4045,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T14:04:35.000Z","block":26384991,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1154,"age_minutes":6,"stale":false,"label":"as of 14:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2129.7699825150853,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T14:04:35.000Z","block":26384991,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1154,"age_minutes":6,"stale":false,"label":"as of 14:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4,"public_asks":743,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.4,"beta":0.0434,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.2,"beta":0.0972,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":86.9},{"pct":-6.2,"beta":-0.0645,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":33,"weighted_sales":12.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-06-20","block":7998163,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":28.0184},{"eth":0.5,"date":"2020-01-07","block":9231966,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":76,"adjusted_eth":27.6364},{"eth":0.55,"date":"2020-03-30","block":9770067,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":119,"adjusted_eth":31.5472},{"eth":0.99,"date":"2020-06-23","block":10321074,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":163,"adjusted_eth":30.096},{"eth":1.43,"date":"2020-06-28","block":10351114,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":160,"adjusted_eth":55.0278},{"eth":75,"date":"2021-12-03","block":13731997,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":34.5455},{"eth":84.95,"date":"2021-12-04","block":13741163,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":127,"adjusted_eth":35.3813}],"comparables":[{"eth":45.5,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":2276,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.2656,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":7461,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.7692,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-10-19","punk":7461,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9086,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":61.69,"date":"2025-07-29","punk":9873,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.3978,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":59.95,"date":"2025-04-07","punk":2276,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.7913,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":60,"date":"2025-03-17","punk":7386,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":47.5371,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":57.5,"date":"2025-01-23","punk":7461,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.7,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.98,"date":"2025-01-20","punk":7120,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1702,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0761,"type_multiple":{"sales":770,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0659,"median_multiple":1.0659},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Wild Hair","sales_12m":53},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 35.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.0 to 38.2 ETH, 2σ range 29.3 to 41.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 14:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 14:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-09.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (770 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +4%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Handlebars -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3159","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}