{"punk":3193,"name":"CryptoPunk #3193","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3193","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3193.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Peak Spike","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":31.3862,"usd":66644,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9279,"high_eth":34.0535,"low_usd":61424,"high_usd":72307},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6621,"high_eth":36.9475,"low_usd":56613,"high_usd":78452},"sigma_log":0.0816,"multiple_of_floor":1.0324,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":31.3862,"usd":66644,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9279,"high_eth":34.0535,"low_usd":61424,"high_usd":72307},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6621,"high_eth":36.9475,"low_usd":56613,"high_usd":78452},"sigma_log":0.0816,"multiple_of_floor":1.0324,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.2,"beta":0.0972,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":87.6},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":99.3},{"pct":-5.9,"beta":-0.0612,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":15.2},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0763,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":8.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.37,"date":"2017-07-12","block":4010221,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":29.9308},{"eth":0.2,"date":"2017-08-12","block":4146851,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":34.8544},{"eth":0.15,"date":"2018-10-11","block":6495434,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":38},{"eth":0.33,"date":"2019-03-13","block":7361558,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":118,"adjusted_eth":34.1224},{"eth":0.53,"date":"2020-04-06","block":9818571,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":27.3085},{"eth":90,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13107586,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":310,"adjusted_eth":29.7391},{"eth":114.8,"date":"2021-08-30","block":13127818,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":29.4533},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-10-21","block":13461473,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":65.45,"date":"2021-12-25","block":13876916,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":59,"date":"2022-01-14","block":14002163,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":29.9183},{"eth":61.99,"date":"2022-01-14","block":14005842,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":31.4345},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-03-19","block":14414188,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":294,"adjusted_eth":30.4217},{"eth":71.45,"date":"2022-03-19","block":14417556,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":31.0519},{"eth":66.5,"date":"2023-01-18","block":16430120,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":140,"adjusted_eth":30.2002},{"eth":69.69,"date":"2023-01-30","block":16523033,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":235,"adjusted_eth":31.964},{"eth":66.8,"date":"2023-03-14","block":16826373,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":167,"adjusted_eth":30.3093},{"eth":62,"date":"2023-04-08","block":17004683,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":141,"adjusted_eth":32.7222},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-07-20","block":22963043,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":28.9524}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.78,"date":"2026-11-06","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7905,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4548,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7165,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2212,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.15,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8746,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7819,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":2235,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4844,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":39.88,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":4714,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9855,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0318,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 31.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.9 to 34.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.7 to 36.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Peak Spike -6%, Clown Eyes Green -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3193","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}