{"punk":3383,"name":"CryptoPunk #3383","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3383","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3383.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Handlebars","Stringy Hair","Medical Mask"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":32.4225,"usd":68844,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.9298,"high_eth":35.1229,"low_usd":63551,"high_usd":74578},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6286,"high_eth":38.0483,"low_usd":58665,"high_usd":80789},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0665,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":32.4225,"usd":68844,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.9298,"high_eth":35.1229,"low_usd":63551,"high_usd":74578},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6286,"high_eth":38.0483,"low_usd":58665,"high_usd":80789},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0665,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1197,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":65},{"pct":-6.2,"beta":-0.0645,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":33,"weighted_sales":12.4},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0981,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":94,"weighted_sales":24.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":6,"date":"2020-06-28","block":10351594,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":129,"adjusted_eth":230.8861},{"eth":8,"date":"2020-09-15","block":10867809,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":43,"adjusted_eth":126.0104},{"eth":9.5,"date":"2020-09-25","block":10931766,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":265,"adjusted_eth":99.5862},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902432,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":41.8},{"eth":120,"date":"2021-09-19","block":13258635,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":101,"adjusted_eth":37.2283},{"eth":106,"date":"2021-10-20","block":13457373,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":363,"adjusted_eth":33.5667},{"eth":107.95,"date":"2021-10-29","block":13510070,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":33.8667},{"eth":115,"date":"2021-11-04","block":13549623,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":38.0207},{"eth":36.68,"date":"2025-03-02","block":21955945,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":253,"adjusted_eth":30.9828},{"eth":45.35,"date":"2025-08-29","block":23244643,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":416,"adjusted_eth":29.5655},{"eth":46.88,"date":"2025-09-03","block":23283834,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":237,"adjusted_eth":29.6969}],"comparables":[{"eth":32,"date":"2026-08-13","punk":2724,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6683,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":7461,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.7692,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-10-19","punk":7461,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9086,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.99,"date":"2025-03-31","punk":5500,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2544,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-01-27","punk":5500,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9687,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":57.5,"date":"2025-01-23","punk":7461,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.7,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.78,"date":"2026-11-06","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7905,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9798,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0007,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Medical Mask","sales_12m":12}],"summary":["Estimate 32.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.9 to 35.1 ETH, 2σ range 27.6 to 38.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Handlebars -6%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3383","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}