{"punk":3759,"name":"CryptoPunk #3759","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3759","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3759.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Do-rag"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-09","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-10T00:20:34.964Z","fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"estimate":{"eth":35.1354,"usd":74830,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.1227,"high_eth":38.4307,"low_usd":68414,"high_usd":81849},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.3683,"high_eth":42.0351,"low_usd":62548,"high_usd":89525},"sigma_log":0.0896,"multiple_of_floor":1.1558,"n1_eth":32.4045,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-10T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":35.1354,"usd":74830,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.1227,"high_eth":38.4307,"low_usd":68414,"high_usd":81849},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.3683,"high_eth":42.0351,"low_usd":62548,"high_usd":89525},"sigma_log":0.0896,"multiple_of_floor":1.1558,"n1_eth":32.4045,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T10:04:35.000Z","block":26383794,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1159,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2129.7699825150853,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T10:04:35.000Z","block":26383794,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1159,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4,"public_asks":743,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":65,"ask_usd":138589,"z":6.87,"z_text":"6.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-07-21T22:45:35.000Z","days_listed":476},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.4,"beta":0.0434,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":20,"beta":0.1823,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":98.5},{"pct":-5.2,"beta":-0.0534,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":18.7},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0563,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.09,"date":"2018-02-18","block":5111523,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":0.19,"date":"2018-11-20","block":6742159,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":121,"adjusted_eth":46.245},{"eth":2.15,"date":"2020-09-18","block":10888228,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":141,"adjusted_eth":33.5179},{"eth":2.69,"date":"2020-11-25","block":11329115,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":25.9606},{"eth":3.1,"date":"2020-12-22","block":11501407,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":9,"adjusted_eth":23.56},{"eth":14.99,"date":"2021-05-14","block":12429721,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":29.3997},{"eth":32.99,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12936734,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":30.6228},{"eth":35,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12938060,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":136,"adjusted_eth":32.4885},{"eth":39.69,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12963581,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":173,"adjusted_eth":27.1507}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8674,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3975,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.29,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2062,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3902,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.88,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3168,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3017,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-08-28","punk":3168,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.0376,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":3168,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.9,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":5887,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.305,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0809,"type_multiple":{"sales":770,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0659,"median_multiple":1.0659},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 35.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.1 to 38.4 ETH, 2σ range 29.4 to 42.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-09.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (770 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +4%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Chinstrap -5%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3759","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}