{"punk":3761,"name":"CryptoPunk #3761","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3761","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3761.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Front Beard","Headband","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-09","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-10T00:20:34.964Z","fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"estimate":{"eth":35.3898,"usd":75372,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.3008,"high_eth":38.7742,"low_usd":68793,"high_usd":82580},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4814,"high_eth":42.4823,"low_usd":62789,"high_usd":90478},"sigma_log":0.0913,"multiple_of_floor":1.1641,"n1_eth":32.4045,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-10T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":35.3898,"usd":75372,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.3008,"high_eth":38.7742,"low_usd":68793,"high_usd":82580},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4814,"high_eth":42.4823,"low_usd":62789,"high_usd":90478},"sigma_log":0.0913,"multiple_of_floor":1.1641,"n1_eth":32.4045,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T11:04:35.000Z","block":26384093,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1159,"age_minutes":8,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2129.7699825150853,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T11:04:35.000Z","block":26384093,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1159,"age_minutes":8,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4,"public_asks":743,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.4,"beta":0.0434,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1197,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":64.5},{"pct":-7.2,"beta":-0.075,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":10.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.35,"date":"2019-02-28","block":7276922,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":36.1905},{"eth":26.4,"date":"2025-12-16","block":24021768,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":373,"adjusted_eth":29.7255},{"eth":27.4,"date":"2025-12-19","block":24047806,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":248,"adjusted_eth":31.3378}],"comparables":[{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3806,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-05-02","punk":2075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.3425,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.49,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":9855,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0166,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2025-11-20","punk":9855,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4101,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2025-11-11","punk":8151,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.1628,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.89,"date":"2025-09-03","punk":2323,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.8705,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.5,"date":"2025-08-24","punk":2323,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5649,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0881,"type_multiple":{"sales":770,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0659,"median_multiple":1.0659},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":47},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 35.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.3 to 38.8 ETH, 2σ range 29.5 to 42.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-09.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (770 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +4%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Front Beard -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3761","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}