{"punk":3935,"name":"CryptoPunk #3935","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3935","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3935.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Front Beard Dark","Earring","Shaved Head"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":28.4308,"usd":60368,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.6407,"high_eth":31.5246,"low_usd":54444,"high_usd":66937},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.1243,"high_eth":34.9551,"low_usd":49101,"high_usd":74221},"sigma_log":0.1033,"multiple_of_floor":0.9352,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":28.4308,"usd":60368,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.6407,"high_eth":31.5246,"low_usd":54444,"high_usd":66937},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.1243,"high_eth":34.9551,"low_usd":49101,"high_usd":74221},"sigma_log":0.1033,"multiple_of_floor":0.9352,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":53.54,"ask_usd":113684,"z":6.13,"z_text":"6.1σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-08-27T00:34:47.000Z","days_listed":439},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.2,"beta":-0.075,"term":"attr:Front Beard Dark","label":"Front Beard Dark","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":13},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0237,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.9},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0756,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":58.5,"date":"2022-04-29","block":14679606,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":136,"adjusted_eth":28.9171},{"eth":49.95,"date":"2022-05-13","block":14765787,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":203,"adjusted_eth":31.0845},{"eth":50.5,"date":"2022-06-18","block":14984783,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":174,"adjusted_eth":24.9423},{"eth":77,"date":"2022-07-19","block":15175983,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":148,"adjusted_eth":28.3768},{"eth":80,"date":"2022-07-20","block":15177189,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":76,"adjusted_eth":29.4824},{"eth":61.96,"date":"2022-09-13","block":15526839,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":210,"adjusted_eth":29.454}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.95,"date":"2026-04-08","punk":6188,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1533,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":28.29,"date":"2026-04-02","punk":6188,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2847,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":45.69,"date":"2025-09-14","punk":1863,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.7157,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-08-19","punk":9335,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.6273,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":8655,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.799,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-23","punk":9335,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4483,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":4855,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":42.3429,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.75,"date":"2026-02-26","punk":9390,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3646,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1307,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 28.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.6 to 31.5 ETH, 2σ range 23.1 to 35.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Front Beard Dark -7%, Earring -2%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3935","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}