{"punk":3945,"name":"CryptoPunk #3945","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3945","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3945.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Normal Beard","Cap","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":40.6074,"usd":86223,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.3601,"high_eth":46.6333,"low_usd":75081,"high_usd":99018},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7909,"high_eth":53.5535,"low_usd":65379,"high_usd":113712},"sigma_log":0.1384,"multiple_of_floor":1.3358,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":40.6074,"usd":86223,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.3601,"high_eth":46.6333,"low_usd":75081,"high_usd":99018},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7909,"high_eth":53.5535,"low_usd":65379,"high_usd":113712},"sigma_log":0.1384,"multiple_of_floor":1.3358,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":20,"beta":0.1822,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.099,"date":"2018-03-01","block":5176909,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":117,"adjusted_eth":30.096},{"eth":39,"date":"2026-01-24","block":24303515,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":200,"adjusted_eth":43.5083}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.75,"date":"2026-05-20","punk":4371,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.0889,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":72,"date":"2025-08-08","punk":3291,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.8358,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.5,"date":"2025-07-01","punk":7806,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7897,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58.4,"date":"2025-05-18","punk":6479,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.0979,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51,"date":"2025-05-15","punk":6479,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2775,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.69,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":3300,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3608,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2024-11-14","punk":7806,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.0491,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.69,"date":"2024-11-14","punk":2965,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8095,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2258,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard","sales_12m":38},{"attribute":"Cap","sales_12m":38},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 40.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.4 to 46.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.8 to 53.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3945","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}