{"punk":3964,"name":"CryptoPunk #3964","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3964","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3964.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Mole","Dark Hair","Green Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":30.669,"usd":65121,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0568,"high_eth":32.3707,"low_usd":61697,"high_usd":68734},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5294,"high_eth":34.1668,"low_usd":58454,"high_usd":72548},"sigma_log":0.054,"multiple_of_floor":1.0088,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.669,"usd":65121,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0568,"high_eth":32.3707,"low_usd":61697,"high_usd":68734},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5294,"high_eth":34.1668,"low_usd":58454,"high_usd":72548},"sigma_log":0.054,"multiple_of_floor":1.0088,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.3,"date":"2020-02-16","block":9492456,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":66.9831},{"eth":2.89,"date":"2020-09-15","block":10863810,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":186,"adjusted_eth":45.5212},{"eth":18.5,"date":"2021-04-17","block":12258099,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":207,"adjusted_eth":28.2613},{"eth":22.5,"date":"2021-04-22","block":12291758,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":35.2577},{"eth":55,"date":"2022-06-18","block":14987131,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":27.1649},{"eth":62.95,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14991468,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":101,"adjusted_eth":28.7124},{"eth":61,"date":"2022-06-24","block":15016034,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":28.9977},{"eth":65.95,"date":"2022-07-02","block":15065645,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":182,"adjusted_eth":30.1531},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-07-02","block":15065731,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":582,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-07-02","block":15065731,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":598,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":57.95,"date":"2025-09-12","punk":5702,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.78,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":34.75,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":5702,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.8073,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2397,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.6,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0424,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.74,"date":"2026-09-20","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5026,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":9691,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.26,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.9,"date":"2026-04-26","punk":1940,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3687,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.7,"date":"2026-02-20","punk":6668,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.3785,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":90},{"attribute":"Dark Hair","sales_12m":17},{"attribute":"Green Eye Shadow","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.5 to 34.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","No attribute of this punk has a clear premium in recent sales, so the estimate is the type multiple.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3964","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}