{"punk":3995,"name":"CryptoPunk #3995","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/3995","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/3995.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Red Mohawk","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":29.9275,"usd":63546,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.3707,"high_eth":31.5697,"low_usd":60241,"high_usd":67033},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8949,"high_eth":33.302,"low_usd":57107,"high_usd":70711},"sigma_log":0.0534,"multiple_of_floor":0.9845,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":29.9275,"usd":63546,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.3707,"high_eth":31.5697,"low_usd":60241,"high_usd":67033},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8949,"high_eth":33.302,"low_usd":57107,"high_usd":70711},"sigma_log":0.0534,"multiple_of_floor":0.9845,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":{"ask_eth":58.4426,"ask_usd":124093,"z":12.53,"z_text":"12.5σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-09-19T17:37:35.000Z","days_listed":415},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":34,"weighted_sales":15.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":45,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12961166,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":247,"adjusted_eth":39.6637},{"eth":95,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13109911,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":31.3913},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-08-17","block":23161961,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":900,"adjusted_eth":30.4061},{"eth":46.75,"date":"2025-08-22","block":23197794,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":423,"adjusted_eth":29.0041},{"eth":47.75,"date":"2025-08-24","block":23211261,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":114,"adjusted_eth":29.1077},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-09-02","block":23273078,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":366,"adjusted_eth":29.9016},{"eth":47.97,"date":"2025-09-17","block":23385070,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":309,"adjusted_eth":30.1923},{"eth":46.988,"date":"2025-09-19","block":23398476,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":163,"adjusted_eth":29.2173},{"eth":48.66,"date":"2025-09-19","block":23398663,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"relay-same-block","log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":30.257},{"eth":48.7021,"date":"2025-09-19","block":23398663,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":8,"adjusted_eth":30.2832}],"comparables":[{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-06","punk":6936,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4924,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.485,"date":"2026-08-24","punk":6570,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3164,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.75,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":628,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5168,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.9,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":3648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.6397,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2026-01-22","punk":9493,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":43.5083,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":9493,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8276,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.23,"date":"2025-09-15","punk":275,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9467,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-09-14","punk":275,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.539,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0245,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":66},{"attribute":"Red Mohawk","sales_12m":10}],"summary":["Estimate 29.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 31.6 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 33.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/3995","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}