{"punk":4164,"name":"CryptoPunk #4164","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4164","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4164.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Headband"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":37.1698,"usd":78924,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.4506,"high_eth":41.3026,"low_usd":71027,"high_usd":87699},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1034,"high_eth":45.8949,"low_usd":63920,"high_usd":97450},"sigma_log":0.1054,"multiple_of_floor":1.2227,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":37.1698,"usd":78924,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.4506,"high_eth":41.3026,"low_usd":71027,"high_usd":87699},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1034,"high_eth":45.8949,"low_usd":63920,"high_usd":97450},"sigma_log":0.1054,"multiple_of_floor":1.2227,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":20,"beta":0.1822,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.1},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":99.3},{"pct":-5.2,"beta":-0.0534,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":18.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.23,"date":"2017-06-24","block":3924724,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":51.7926},{"eth":0.35,"date":"2017-07-12","block":4010213,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":28.3129},{"eth":27,"date":"2021-03-15","block":12045325,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":41.04},{"eth":125,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13112537,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":27.5968},{"eth":140,"date":"2021-08-29","block":13119315,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":33.3804},{"eth":60,"date":"2022-02-09","block":14168819,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":27.2442},{"eth":22,"date":"2024-08-20","block":20571649,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":23.1579},{"eth":0,"date":"2024-08-20","block":20571649,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":30,"date":"2024-08-22","block":20581157,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":228,"adjusted_eth":33.0674},{"eth":30.95,"date":"2024-10-14","block":20964280,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":219,"adjusted_eth":33.9056},{"eth":40,"date":"2025-02-01","block":21752312,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":30.3242},{"eth":35.6,"date":"2026-08-20","block":25798347,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":415,"adjusted_eth":33.3922}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.59,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8272,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9275,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.69,"date":"2025-04-26","punk":8716,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2732,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.69,"date":"2025-01-24","punk":8716,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7382,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.94,"date":"2024-12-14","punk":8178,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.9147,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.24,"date":"2024-12-04","punk":8178,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.27,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2024-12-02","punk":8178,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.79,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9891,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7165,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1373,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 37.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.5 to 41.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 45.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Chinstrap -5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4164","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}