{"punk":4186,"name":"CryptoPunk #4186","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4186","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4186.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frumpy Hair","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":30.3119,"usd":64362,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7957,"high_eth":33.0558,"low_usd":59020,"high_usd":70189},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4884,"high_eth":36.0482,"low_usd":54120,"high_usd":76543},"sigma_log":0.0867,"multiple_of_floor":0.9971,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.3119,"usd":64362,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7957,"high_eth":33.0558,"low_usd":59020,"high_usd":70189},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4884,"high_eth":36.0482,"low_usd":54120,"high_usd":76543},"sigma_log":0.0867,"multiple_of_floor":0.9971,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":99.3},{"pct":-7.2,"beta":-0.0751,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59,"weighted_sales":19.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":5.9,"date":"2021-02-11","block":11836922,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":29.3072},{"eth":13.55,"date":"2021-02-20","block":11896961,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":30.4225},{"eth":19.456,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11903031,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":193,"adjusted_eth":29.5731},{"eth":18,"date":"2021-07-06","block":12776289,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":23,"date":"2021-07-29","block":12919449,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":30.7476},{"eth":67.69,"date":"2022-01-04","block":13937044,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":30.8558}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.4,"date":"2026-08-29","punk":3218,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8959,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-07-31","punk":8949,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.9718,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.79,"date":"2026-04-07","punk":8949,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.905,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-02-12","punk":8949,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.6449,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":3218,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4849,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55.5,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":4645,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.256,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.98,"date":"2025-07-22","punk":8949,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9872,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.78,"date":"2026-11-06","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7905,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0666,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":65}],"summary":["Estimate 30.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.8 to 33.1 ETH, 2σ range 25.5 to 36.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4186","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}