{"punk":4477,"name":"CryptoPunk #4477","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4477","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4477.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Peak Spike","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7374,"usd":65266,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.2545,"high_eth":33.4384,"low_usd":59994,"high_usd":71001},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.9723,"high_eth":36.3767,"low_usd":55148,"high_usd":77240},"sigma_log":0.0842,"multiple_of_floor":1.0111,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.7374,"usd":65266,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.2545,"high_eth":33.4384,"low_usd":59994,"high_usd":71001},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.9723,"high_eth":36.3767,"low_usd":55148,"high_usd":77240},"sigma_log":0.0842,"multiple_of_floor":1.0111,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":99.3},{"pct":-5.9,"beta":-0.0612,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":15.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.85,"date":"2020-08-18","block":10681324,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":68,"date":"2022-07-02","block":15065734,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":31.0904},{"eth":69,"date":"2022-10-27","block":15840384,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":418,"adjusted_eth":32.5209},{"eth":38,"date":"2025-01-04","block":21554343,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":30.416},{"eth":54.17,"date":"2025-08-08","block":23098879,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":354,"adjusted_eth":30.7233}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7819,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.79,"date":"2026-03-21","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7201,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.4,"date":"2026-03-13","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2933,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-02-20","punk":6785,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.7651,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27,"date":"2026-01-31","punk":6785,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9125,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-01-14","punk":6785,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.8889,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.97,"date":"2025-11-14","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.745,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.89,"date":"2025-10-24","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.32,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0527,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.3 to 33.4 ETH, 2σ range 26.0 to 36.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4477","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}