{"punk":4478,"name":"CryptoPunk #4478","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4478","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4478.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Gold Chain","Muttonchops","Mohawk Thin"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":27.4405,"usd":58265,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.4515,"high_eth":30.7949,"low_usd":51919,"high_usd":65388},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":21.788,"high_eth":34.5594,"low_usd":46263,"high_usd":73381},"sigma_log":0.1153,"multiple_of_floor":0.9026,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":27.4405,"usd":58265,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.4515,"high_eth":30.7949,"low_usd":51919,"high_usd":65388},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":21.788,"high_eth":34.5594,"low_usd":46263,"high_usd":73381},"sigma_log":0.1153,"multiple_of_floor":0.9026,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":56.8301,"ask_usd":120670,"z":6.31,"z_text":"6.3σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-10-02T21:23:59.000Z","days_listed":402},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-9.2,"beta":-0.0964,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.3},{"pct":-10.7,"beta":-0.1133,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":10.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.88,"date":"2020-01-26","block":9357728,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":40.5333},{"eth":85,"date":"2022-07-11","block":15120904,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":34.0224},{"eth":56.96,"date":"2023-06-05","block":17412533,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":207,"adjusted_eth":32.7022},{"eth":42.55,"date":"2025-04-06","block":22213257,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":30.3714},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-04-07","block":22214630,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":192,"adjusted_eth":30.6927},{"eth":44.9949,"date":"2025-07-20","block":22963043,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":28.9491},{"eth":0,"date":"2025-07-20","block":22963043,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":47.29,"date":"2025-10-02","block":23492760,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"relay-same-block","log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":30.3936},{"eth":47.3585,"date":"2025-10-02","block":23492760,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":18,"adjusted_eth":30.4376}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.85,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3797,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2723,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":3797,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.917,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7682,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.94,"date":"2026-06-25","punk":5842,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7652,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-06-03","punk":5842,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0844,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5606,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.0947,"date":"2025-10-17","punk":1927,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7745,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54,"date":"2025-07-30","punk":6008,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4903,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1661,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Gold Chain","sales_12m":24}],"summary":["Estimate 27.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 24.5 to 30.8 ETH, 2σ range 21.8 to 34.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Muttonchops -9%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4478","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}