{"punk":4765,"name":"CryptoPunk #4765","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4765","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4765.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Vampire Hair","Pipe"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":30.3052,"usd":64348,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7884,"high_eth":33.0499,"low_usd":59004,"high_usd":70176},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4806,"high_eth":36.0433,"low_usd":54104,"high_usd":76532},"sigma_log":0.0867,"multiple_of_floor":0.9969,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.3052,"usd":64348,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7884,"high_eth":33.0499,"low_usd":59004,"high_usd":70176},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.4806,"high_eth":36.0433,"low_usd":54104,"high_usd":76532},"sigma_log":0.0867,"multiple_of_floor":0.9969,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":18,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":18,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1104,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":42,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12937124,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":38.9863},{"eth":45,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12937677,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":183,"adjusted_eth":41.771},{"eth":100,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13105981,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":33.0435},{"eth":108,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13233615,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":101,"adjusted_eth":32.1882},{"eth":117.97,"date":"2021-09-23","block":13283516,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":35.1631},{"eth":30,"date":"2024-09-21","block":20800345,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":31.568},{"eth":48.13,"date":"2025-10-10","block":23546548,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":95,"adjusted_eth":30.546}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.95,"date":"2025-12-30","punk":9987,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.9858,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.5,"date":"2025-09-25","punk":8237,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.4652,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.25,"date":"2025-09-22","punk":8237,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1135,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":162,"date":"2025-01-31","punk":5473,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":126.3093,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.5,"date":"2025-01-15","punk":8237,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.54,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.25,"date":"2024-11-26","punk":7240,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.2588,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.25,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2401,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.3867,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0668,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Pipe","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 30.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.8 to 33.0 ETH, 2σ range 25.5 to 36.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Vampire Hair -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4765","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}