{"punk":4804,"name":"CryptoPunk #4804","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4804","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4804.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Wild Hair","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":32.6776,"usd":69386,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.1618,"high_eth":35.4032,"low_usd":64044,"high_usd":75173},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.8397,"high_eth":38.3562,"low_usd":59113,"high_usd":81443},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0749,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":32.6776,"usd":69386,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.1618,"high_eth":35.4032,"low_usd":64044,"high_usd":75173},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.8397,"high_eth":38.3562,"low_usd":59113,"high_usd":81443},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0749,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":36,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":36,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":99.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-01-24","block":7120661,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":26,"adjusted_eth":30.5017},{"eth":0.5,"date":"2020-03-13","block":9663687,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":25.3333},{"eth":1.1,"date":"2020-05-25","block":10136927,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":29.8571},{"eth":2.93,"date":"2020-09-24","block":10927880,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":33.6121},{"eth":5.6,"date":"2021-02-01","block":11768436,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":33.3804},{"eth":17.95,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902432,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":102,"adjusted_eth":27.284},{"eth":18.98,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902785,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":28.8496},{"eth":108,"date":"2021-10-10","block":13388593,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":29.8473},{"eth":79.94,"date":"2021-12-09","block":13771384,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":59,"adjusted_eth":33.8984},{"eth":55.55,"date":"2024-01-02","block":18920481,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":275,"adjusted_eth":30.3454},{"eth":40.5,"date":"2024-04-12","block":19640866,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":489,"adjusted_eth":29.504},{"eth":38.5,"date":"2024-05-10","block":19840884,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":184,"adjusted_eth":30.1572},{"eth":26.89,"date":"2024-08-20","block":20571517,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":239,"adjusted_eth":28.3053}],"comparables":[{"eth":60,"date":"2025-04-26","punk":7446,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.4734,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.99,"date":"2025-01-14","punk":7446,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.44,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.5,"date":"2024-11-30","punk":7446,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.34,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.39,"date":"2026-11-08","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9798,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6109,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5394,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.3412,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7819,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0085,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Wild Hair","sales_12m":53},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 32.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 35.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.8 to 38.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4804","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}