{"punk":4871,"name":"CryptoPunk #4871","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4871","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4871.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Earring","Mohawk Dark"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":33.6487,"usd":71448,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.9933,"high_eth":36.5316,"low_usd":65809,"high_usd":77569},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5475,"high_eth":39.6616,"low_usd":60616,"high_usd":84215},"sigma_log":0.0822,"multiple_of_floor":1.1069,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":33.6487,"usd":71448,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.9933,"high_eth":36.5316,"low_usd":65809,"high_usd":77569},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5475,"high_eth":39.6616,"low_usd":60616,"high_usd":84215},"sigma_log":0.0822,"multiple_of_floor":1.1069,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.2,"beta":0.0972,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":87.6},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0237,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.9},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0792,"term":"attr:Mohawk Dark","label":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53,"weighted_sales":13.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.13,"date":"2020-05-26","block":10141933,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":27.7032},{"eth":1.01,"date":"2020-06-12","block":10249540,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":26.6991},{"eth":0.9,"date":"2020-07-29","block":10557462,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":29.4194},{"eth":64,"date":"2022-12-06","block":16128276,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":30.4238},{"eth":68.8,"date":"2022-12-06","block":16128651,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":130,"adjusted_eth":32.7056},{"eth":70.95,"date":"2022-12-06","block":16128918,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":469,"adjusted_eth":33.7276},{"eth":69,"date":"2023-11-10","block":18543130,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":175,"adjusted_eth":35.5525},{"eth":31,"date":"2024-10-22","block":21021837,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":190,"adjusted_eth":34.0832}],"comparables":[{"eth":45.45,"date":"2025-04-05","punk":791,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.4414,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40,"date":"2024-11-28","punk":791,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4915,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3404,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.311,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9787,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.058,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.75,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":2128,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9647,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5942,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0824,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.49,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":9787,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1433,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.98,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":5133,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.853,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0378,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55}],"summary":["Estimate 33.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.0 to 36.5 ETH, 2σ range 28.5 to 39.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Earring -2%, Mohawk Dark -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4871","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}