{"punk":4875,"name":"CryptoPunk #4875","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4875","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4875.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mustache","Earring","Stringy Hair","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":29.9638,"usd":63623,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.1882,"high_eth":33.0227,"low_usd":57730,"high_usd":70118},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.6698,"high_eth":36.3938,"low_usd":52382,"high_usd":77276},"sigma_log":0.0972,"multiple_of_floor":0.9857,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":29.9638,"usd":63623,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.1882,"high_eth":33.0227,"low_usd":57730,"high_usd":70118},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.6698,"high_eth":36.3938,"low_usd":52382,"high_usd":77276},"sigma_log":0.0972,"multiple_of_floor":0.9857,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":13,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":13,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0237,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.9},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0981,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":94,"weighted_sales":24.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.4,"date":"2020-09-11","block":10841280,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":145,"adjusted_eth":30.8406},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12923976,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":286,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":29.72,"date":"2024-09-09","block":20713495,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":150,"adjusted_eth":30.3388},{"eth":38.75,"date":"2024-11-23","block":21251839,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":643,"adjusted_eth":31.255},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-01-26","block":21706821,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":31.9609},{"eth":43.98,"date":"2025-04-27","block":22361716,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":212,"adjusted_eth":30.0448}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9798,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":41,"date":"2025-07-09","punk":6193,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6833,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":41,"date":"2025-03-27","punk":6193,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.334,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":37.99,"date":"2025-03-10","punk":6193,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4041,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":39.9747,"date":"2025-01-22","punk":543,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4036,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":36,"date":"2025-01-18","punk":543,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3799,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2024-11-11","punk":543,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4103,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7819,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0782,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":52},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 30.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.2 to 33.0 ETH, 2σ range 24.7 to 36.4 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4875","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}