{"punk":4912,"name":"CryptoPunk #4912","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4912","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4912.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Mole","Dark Hair"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":30.669,"usd":65121,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.115,"high_eth":32.306,"low_usd":61821,"high_usd":68597},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6397,"high_eth":34.0304,"low_usd":58688,"high_usd":72258},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0088,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.669,"usd":65121,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.115,"high_eth":32.306,"low_usd":61821,"high_usd":68597},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6397,"high_eth":34.0304,"low_usd":58688,"high_usd":72258},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0088,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.15,"date":"2020-01-18","block":9308317,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":54.625},{"eth":1.7,"date":"2020-09-14","block":10862247,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":216,"adjusted_eth":26.6392},{"eth":17.2,"date":"2021-06-29","block":12731496,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":151,"adjusted_eth":30.0506},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12923949,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":335,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":28.39,"date":"2024-09-21","block":20799558,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":562,"adjusted_eth":29.8739}],"comparables":[{"eth":57.95,"date":"2025-09-12","punk":5702,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.78,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":34.75,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":5702,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.8073,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.7,"date":"2026-02-20","punk":6668,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.3785,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.35,"date":"2026-01-25","punk":9727,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7895,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49.6,"date":"2025-10-08","punk":9152,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1023,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.1058,"date":"2025-10-04","punk":5731,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9063,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.49,"date":"2025-10-04","punk":5731,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5234,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51.999,"date":"2025-07-21","punk":6340,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0015,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":90},{"attribute":"Dark Hair","sales_12m":17}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 32.3 ETH, 2σ range 27.6 to 34.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","No attribute of this punk has a clear premium in recent sales, so the estimate is the type multiple.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4912","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}