{"punk":4994,"name":"CryptoPunk #4994","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4994","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4994.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mole","Goat","Mohawk"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":29.6408,"usd":62937,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.0478,"high_eth":32.4824,"low_usd":57432,"high_usd":68971},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.6817,"high_eth":35.5964,"low_usd":52408,"high_usd":75583},"sigma_log":0.0915,"multiple_of_floor":0.975,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":29.6408,"usd":62937,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.0478,"high_eth":32.4824,"low_usd":57432,"high_usd":68971},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.6817,"high_eth":35.5964,"low_usd":52408,"high_usd":75583},"sigma_log":0.0915,"multiple_of_floor":0.975,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.2,"beta":0.0972,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":87.6},{"pct":-6.8,"beta":-0.0706,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":90,"weighted_sales":23},{"pct":-7.2,"beta":-0.0751,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.3},{"pct":-8.1,"beta":-0.084,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":74,"weighted_sales":16.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.3,"date":"2020-06-03","block":10195094,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":82,"adjusted_eth":31.871},{"eth":2.1,"date":"2020-09-23","block":10916238,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":170,"adjusted_eth":29.693},{"eth":3,"date":"2020-09-26","block":10936536,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":8.3,"date":"2021-02-16","block":11867907,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":105,"adjusted_eth":30.0381},{"eth":18.5,"date":"2021-03-09","block":12001349,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":18,"adjusted_eth":34.0848},{"eth":21.98,"date":"2021-03-14","block":12034759,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":105,"adjusted_eth":31.8187},{"eth":23,"date":"2021-04-13","block":12234206,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":70,"adjusted_eth":34.5284},{"eth":19.5,"date":"2021-07-10","block":12802430,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":128,"adjusted_eth":31.3983},{"eth":24,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12929843,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":28.1481},{"eth":38.77,"date":"2025-02-21","block":21891345,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":130,"adjusted_eth":33.2846}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5961,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.65,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.359,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.501,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8906,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.869,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":2957,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6763,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.5,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":8340,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.1418,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.25,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":2957,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.1591,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2026-04-27","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3114,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.89,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4105,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.089,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 29.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.0 to 32.5 ETH, 2σ range 24.7 to 35.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Mole -7%, Goat -7%, Mohawk -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4994","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}