{"punk":4998,"name":"CryptoPunk #4998","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/4998","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/4998.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frown","Chinstrap","Messy Hair","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-09","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-10T00:20:34.964Z","fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"estimate":{"eth":32.082,"usd":68327,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.3459,"high_eth":35.0731,"low_usd":62500,"high_usd":74698},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8432,"high_eth":38.3431,"low_usd":57170,"high_usd":81662},"sigma_log":0.0891,"multiple_of_floor":1.0553,"n1_eth":32.4045,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-10T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":32.082,"usd":68327,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.3459,"high_eth":35.0731,"low_usd":62500,"high_usd":74698},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8432,"high_eth":38.3431,"low_usd":57170,"high_usd":81662},"sigma_log":0.0891,"multiple_of_floor":1.0553,"n1_eth":32.4045,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T11:04:35.000Z","block":26384093,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1159,"age_minutes":16,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2129.7699825150853,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T11:04:35.000Z","block":26384093,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1159,"age_minutes":16,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4,"public_asks":743,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.4,"beta":0.0434,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-5.2,"beta":-0.0534,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":18.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-07-13","block":8143774,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":26.8235},{"eth":4.69,"date":"2021-01-08","block":11610715,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":74,"adjusted_eth":30.9948},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-04-28","block":14674761,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":96,"adjusted_eth":34.3558}],"comparables":[{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-12","punk":3758,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.6154,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.69,"date":"2026-10-07","punk":9706,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.8366,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.16,"date":"2026-09-09","punk":2167,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6213,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.33,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":2167,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7173,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.069,"date":"2026-06-12","punk":9706,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.23,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-05-25","punk":2648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0193,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.25,"date":"2026-05-23","punk":6652,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.5909,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.25,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":2167,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7368,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.01,"type_multiple":{"sales":770,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0659,"median_multiple":1.0659},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":39},{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":111}],"summary":["Estimate 32.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.3 to 35.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.8 to 38.3 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-09.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (770 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +4%, Chinstrap -5%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/4998","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}