{"punk":531,"name":"CryptoPunk #531","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/531","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/531.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Earring","Knitted Cap"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":31.9135,"usd":67763,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4494,"high_eth":34.5839,"low_usd":62531,"high_usd":73433},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.1755,"high_eth":37.4776,"low_usd":57703,"high_usd":79578},"sigma_log":0.0804,"multiple_of_floor":1.0498,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":31.9135,"usd":67763,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4494,"high_eth":34.5839,"low_usd":62531,"high_usd":73433},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.1755,"high_eth":37.4776,"low_usd":57703,"high_usd":79578},"sigma_log":0.0804,"multiple_of_floor":1.0498,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":29,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":29,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":69,"ask_usd":146510,"z":9.59,"z_text":"9.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2024-03-15T20:19:11.000Z","days_listed":968},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":99.3},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0237,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":22,"date":"2021-07-23","block":12883372,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":189,"adjusted_eth":32.6244},{"eth":57.5,"date":"2022-02-24","block":14270242,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":27.5493},{"eth":64.69,"date":"2022-02-27","block":14290430,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":159,"adjusted_eth":28.7091},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-02-27","block":14290590,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-02-27","block":14290590,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":72,"date":"2022-03-19","block":14417607,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":31.2909},{"eth":71.95,"date":"2022-03-28","block":14471511,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":30.8068},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-04-26","block":14659113,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":324,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":58,"date":"2022-06-18","block":14986747,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":91,"adjusted_eth":28.6466}],"comparables":[{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":4202,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.9397,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.7137,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.92,"date":"2026-08-03","punk":5322,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9066,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.75,"date":"2026-02-26","punk":9390,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3646,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.57,"date":"2026-01-23","punk":8106,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9882,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-01-19","punk":8106,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8276,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53.5,"date":"2025-08-08","punk":6117,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3433,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":65,"date":"2025-07-30","punk":3855,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":36.7013,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0151,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49}],"summary":["Estimate 31.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.4 to 34.6 ETH, 2σ range 27.2 to 37.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/531","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}