{"punk":5614,"name":"CryptoPunk #5614","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5614","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5614.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frown","Earring","Mohawk Thin"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":29.5098,"usd":62659,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.8987,"high_eth":32.3743,"low_usd":57115,"high_usd":68742},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.5187,"high_eth":35.5169,"low_usd":52061,"high_usd":75414},"sigma_log":0.0926,"multiple_of_floor":0.9707,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":29.5098,"usd":62659,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.8987,"high_eth":32.3743,"low_usd":57115,"high_usd":68742},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.5187,"high_eth":35.5169,"low_usd":52061,"high_usd":75414},"sigma_log":0.0926,"multiple_of_floor":0.9707,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0237,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.9},{"pct":-10.7,"beta":-0.1133,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":10.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.55,"date":"2020-09-14","block":10862300,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":322,"adjusted_eth":24.2887},{"eth":3.43,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10948746,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":239,"adjusted_eth":18.009},{"eth":5.9,"date":"2021-02-11","block":11835057,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":150,"adjusted_eth":29.3072},{"eth":9.85,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11871653,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":157,"adjusted_eth":23.2484},{"eth":69,"date":"2021-12-06","block":13753218,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":112,"adjusted_eth":30.5372},{"eth":68.69,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14992443,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":31.3305},{"eth":65,"date":"2022-07-30","block":15242185,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":28.8889},{"eth":73.95,"date":"2022-08-07","block":15294206,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":30.1756},{"eth":54.25,"date":"2023-12-11","block":18763680,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":194,"adjusted_eth":29.6139},{"eth":56.9,"date":"2024-01-11","block":18985336,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":20,"adjusted_eth":29.8286}],"comparables":[{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4844,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":8375,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1405,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7682,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":5459,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5606,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-10","punk":9110,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5831,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-03-28","punk":9024,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7217,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.59,"date":"2026-01-28","punk":9117,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7442,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.69,"date":"2026-01-25","punk":9117,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0934,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":39}],"summary":["Estimate 29.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.9 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 24.5 to 35.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5614","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}