{"punk":5731,"name":"CryptoPunk #5731","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5731","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5731.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Mole","Red Mohawk"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":31.5211,"usd":66930,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8708,"high_eth":33.2625,"low_usd":63426,"high_usd":70628},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3069,"high_eth":35.1002,"low_usd":60105,"high_usd":74530},"sigma_log":0.0538,"multiple_of_floor":1.0369,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":31.5211,"usd":66930,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8708,"high_eth":33.2625,"low_usd":63426,"high_usd":70628},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3069,"high_eth":35.1002,"low_usd":60105,"high_usd":74530},"sigma_log":0.0538,"multiple_of_floor":1.0369,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":{"ask_eth":57.727,"ask_usd":122574,"z":11.25,"z_text":"11.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-10-04T12:52:23.000Z","days_listed":400},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":51.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":16,"date":"2021-03-30","block":12142596,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":116,"adjusted_eth":27.8261},{"eth":20,"date":"2021-04-15","block":12245480,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":31.1955},{"eth":23.5,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12362145,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":189,"adjusted_eth":34.9853},{"eth":23.7,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12362261,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":219,"adjusted_eth":35.2831},{"eth":24,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12362384,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":35.7297},{"eth":24,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12929843,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":68,"adjusted_eth":28.1481},{"eth":34.49,"date":"2025-02-24","block":21915667,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":243,"adjusted_eth":30.4088},{"eth":47.49,"date":"2025-10-04","block":23504304,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":29.5234},{"eth":47.99,"date":"2025-10-04","block":23504536,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"relay-same-block","log_index":79,"adjusted_eth":29.8343},{"eth":48.1058,"date":"2025-10-04","block":23504536,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":83,"adjusted_eth":29.9063}],"comparables":[{"eth":57.95,"date":"2025-09-12","punk":5702,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.78,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55.49,"date":"2025-08-10","punk":1706,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0662,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50.99,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":5137,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8153,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":1900,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2392,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":6383,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2392,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.5,"date":"2025-07-18","punk":1900,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5533,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41,"date":"2025-06-23","punk":4637,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.5544,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.5,"date":"2025-06-20","punk":4637,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1028,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0274,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":90},{"attribute":"Red Mohawk","sales_12m":10}],"summary":["Estimate 31.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.9 to 33.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 35.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5731","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}