{"punk":5931,"name":"CryptoPunk #5931","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/5931","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/5931.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Mohawk Thin","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-09","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-10T00:20:34.964Z","fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"estimate":{"eth":29.9896,"usd":63871,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.4363,"high_eth":31.6278,"low_usd":60563,"high_usd":67360},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.9634,"high_eth":33.3555,"low_usd":57426,"high_usd":71040},"sigma_log":0.0532,"multiple_of_floor":0.9865,"n1_eth":30.6669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-10T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":29.9896,"usd":63871,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.4363,"high_eth":31.6278,"low_usd":60563,"high_usd":67360},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.9634,"high_eth":33.3555,"low_usd":57426,"high_usd":71040},"sigma_log":0.0532,"multiple_of_floor":0.9865,"n1_eth":30.6669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T11:04:35.000Z","block":26384093,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1159,"age_minutes":8,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2129.7699825150853,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T11:04:35.000Z","block":26384093,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1159,"age_minutes":8,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0223,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":111,"weighted_sales":13.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-02","block":8472868,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":155,"adjusted_eth":25.3333},{"eth":0.35,"date":"2019-11-10","block":8910836,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":47.9,"date":"2023-08-29","block":18023320,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":598,"adjusted_eth":29.7479},{"eth":32.49,"date":"2026-09-23","block":26039261,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":29.0499}],"comparables":[{"eth":36,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3859,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4168,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.5,"date":"2026-07-07","punk":1470,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":49.1985,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":7877,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.631,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.9,"date":"2026-05-06","punk":7877,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3215,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52,"date":"2026-03-05","punk":2889,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":52.9581,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2025-11-19","punk":4700,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0268,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":90.1,"date":"2025-09-03","punk":843,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":57.0752,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-08-10","punk":3961,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.989,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0223,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":66},{"attribute":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51}],"summary":["Estimate 30.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 31.6 ETH, 2σ range 27.0 to 33.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-09.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/5931","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}