{"punk":618,"name":"CryptoPunk #618","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/618","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/618.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Wild Hair","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":29.3968,"usd":62419,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7917,"high_eth":31.0946,"low_usd":59011,"high_usd":66024},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.2742,"high_eth":32.8905,"low_usd":55789,"high_usd":69838},"sigma_log":0.0561,"multiple_of_floor":0.967,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":29.3968,"usd":62419,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.7917,"high_eth":31.0946,"low_usd":59011,"high_usd":66024},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.2742,"high_eth":32.8905,"low_usd":55789,"high_usd":69838},"sigma_log":0.0561,"multiple_of_floor":0.967,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":13,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":13,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-4.1,"beta":-0.0424,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":9.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":24.99,"date":"2021-02-24","block":11919499,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":137,"adjusted_eth":34.5316},{"eth":120,"date":"2021-08-29","block":13122774,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":28.6118},{"eth":133.99,"date":"2021-08-29","block":13122915,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":31.9474},{"eth":100,"date":"2021-08-31","block":13135733,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":26.4371},{"eth":93.25,"date":"2021-09-03","block":13154189,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":192,"adjusted_eth":29.1646},{"eth":97.25,"date":"2021-09-04","block":13158124,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":53,"adjusted_eth":29.8626},{"eth":66,"date":"2022-06-26","block":15029283,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":308,"adjusted_eth":29.6893},{"eth":48.26,"date":"2025-07-26","block":23002484,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":208,"adjusted_eth":29.0573},{"eth":51.49,"date":"2025-07-28","block":23016827,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":446,"adjusted_eth":28.9977}],"comparables":[{"eth":36.97,"date":"2024-11-21","punk":9244,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8193,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8118,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.994,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9334,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.09,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":2278,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9021,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.46,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9417,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.7,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":471,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2376,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.48,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1707,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0409,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.6,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3716,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0424,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Wild Hair","sales_12m":53}],"summary":["Estimate 29.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.8 to 31.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.3 to 32.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Clown Eyes Green -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/618","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}