{"punk":6204,"name":"CryptoPunk #6204","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6204","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6204.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Front Beard","Cowboy Hat","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":69.065,"usd":146648,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":46.9105,"high_eth":101.6823,"low_usd":99607,"high_usd":215906},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8627,"high_eth":149.7039,"low_usd":67655,"high_usd":317872},"sigma_log":0.3868,"multiple_of_floor":2.2719,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":69.065,"usd":146648,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":46.9105,"high_eth":101.6823,"low_usd":99607,"high_usd":215906},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8627,"high_eth":149.7039,"low_usd":67655,"high_usd":317872},"sigma_log":0.3868,"multiple_of_floor":2.2719,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1197,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":65},{"pct":-7.2,"beta":-0.0751,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":11},{"pct":95.2,"beta":0.6687,"term":"attr:Cowboy Hat","label":"Cowboy Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":2.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1,"date":"2017-11-20","block":4590157,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":33.7778}],"comparables":[{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3806,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8871,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":76,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":2833,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":71.2207,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":97,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":6891,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":90.9001,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.4,"date":"2025-12-19","punk":3761,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3378,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.4,"date":"2025-12-16","punk":3761,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7255,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":65,"date":"2025-04-13","punk":1999,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.5051,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.5,"date":"2025-02-08","punk":2913,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.056,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.7569,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 69.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 46.9 to 102 ETH, 2σ range 31.9 to 150 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Front Beard -7%, Cowboy Hat +95%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6204","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}