{"punk":628,"name":"CryptoPunk #628","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/628","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/628.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Earring","Stringy Hair","Purple Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":35.9663,"usd":76369,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6662,"high_eth":39.5998,"low_usd":69361,"high_usd":84084},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6689,"high_eth":43.6004,"low_usd":62997,"high_usd":92578},"sigma_log":0.0962,"multiple_of_floor":1.1831,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":35.9663,"usd":76369,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6662,"high_eth":39.5998,"low_usd":69361,"high_usd":84084},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6689,"high_eth":43.6004,"low_usd":62997,"high_usd":92578},"sigma_log":0.0962,"multiple_of_floor":1.1831,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":13,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":13,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":{"ask_eth":36.49,"ask_usd":77481,"z":0.15,"z_text":"0.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-06-17T05:32:11.000Z","days_listed":145},"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2095,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.4},{"pct":-2.5,"beta":-0.0257,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":94,"weighted_sales":12.5},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0245,"term":"attr:Purple Eye Shadow","label":"Purple Eye Shadow","sales_12m":34,"weighted_sales":15.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":12,"date":"2021-02-09","block":11820926,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":134,"adjusted_eth":61.8305},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2021-03-17","block":12058820,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":40.7189},{"eth":129,"date":"2021-08-29","block":13120263,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":102,"adjusted_eth":30.7576},{"eth":109.88,"date":"2021-09-24","block":13290641,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":32.7485},{"eth":59.36,"date":"2024-01-13","block":19001327,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":113,"adjusted_eth":30.3949},{"eth":37,"date":"2024-04-24","block":19726891,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":28.8558},{"eth":31.75,"date":"2026-06-16","block":25330727,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":374,"adjusted_eth":29.5168}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.79,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":2659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2505,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":29.899,"date":"2026-05-15","punk":2659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3392,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":48.23,"date":"2025-09-15","punk":275,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9467,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-09-14","punk":275,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.539,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":4455,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2392,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":40.99,"date":"2025-03-27","punk":6718,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3268,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":39.39,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":6718,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6473,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":34.24,"date":"2025-01-13","punk":275,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0024,"shared_attributes":3}],"premium_log":0.1593,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":66},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303}],"summary":["Estimate 36.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.6 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%, Stringy Hair -3%, Purple Eye Shadow -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/628","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}