{"punk":6451,"name":"CryptoPunk #6451","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6451","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6451.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Earring","Straight Hair Dark","Medical Mask"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":30.669,"usd":65121,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0568,"high_eth":32.3707,"low_usd":61697,"high_usd":68734},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5294,"high_eth":34.1668,"low_usd":58454,"high_usd":72548},"sigma_log":0.054,"multiple_of_floor":1.0088,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.669,"usd":65121,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0568,"high_eth":32.3707,"low_usd":61697,"high_usd":68734},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5294,"high_eth":34.1668,"low_usd":58454,"high_usd":72548},"sigma_log":0.054,"multiple_of_floor":1.0088,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2017-07-04","block":3974469,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":38.8085},{"eth":2.25,"date":"2020-01-19","block":9312040,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":105,"adjusted_eth":100.5882},{"eth":55,"date":"2024-02-12","block":19211056,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":385,"adjusted_eth":28.5812},{"eth":55.99,"date":"2024-02-25","block":19301697,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":94,"adjusted_eth":30.3404}],"comparables":[{"eth":36.5,"date":"2026-01-23","punk":6667,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":40.7193,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":25.65,"date":"2026-01-16","punk":6667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.0374,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":48.1,"date":"2025-09-15","punk":5060,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.866,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":36.48,"date":"2025-03-05","punk":5060,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5731,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":88,"date":"2026-10-22","punk":4405,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":85.5517,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.008,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3976,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9693,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1452,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2941,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.6,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3716,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":66},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303},{"attribute":"Straight Hair Dark","sales_12m":29},{"attribute":"Medical Mask","sales_12m":12}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.5 to 34.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","No attribute of this punk has a clear premium in recent sales, so the estimate is the type multiple.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6451","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}