{"punk":6514,"name":"CryptoPunk #6514","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6514","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6514.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mole","Shadow Beard","Do-rag"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":29.8084,"usd":63293,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.2371,"high_eth":32.6224,"low_usd":57834,"high_usd":69268},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.8876,"high_eth":35.7021,"low_usd":52845,"high_usd":75808},"sigma_log":0.0902,"multiple_of_floor":0.9805,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":29.8084,"usd":63293,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.2371,"high_eth":32.6224,"low_usd":57834,"high_usd":69268},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.8876,"high_eth":35.7021,"low_usd":52845,"high_usd":75808},"sigma_log":0.0902,"multiple_of_floor":0.9805,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-6.8,"beta":-0.0706,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":90,"weighted_sales":23},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0563,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.05,"date":"2018-06-07","block":5746727,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-05-06","block":7704689,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":117,"adjusted_eth":20.7273},{"eth":5.88,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10953035,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":30.8725},{"eth":12.88,"date":"2021-05-13","block":12428084,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":285,"adjusted_eth":27.0036},{"eth":30,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12936330,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":30.4101}],"comparables":[{"eth":39.69,"date":"2026-08-08","punk":9950,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.4713,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":117,"date":"2026-03-28","punk":4770,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":123.7148,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.98,"date":"2026-02-23","punk":6755,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5041,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.75,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":9119,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.3603,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.25,"date":"2025-12-31","punk":8002,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8095,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-10-16","punk":7625,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4801,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54,"date":"2025-08-06","punk":9421,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3941,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.95,"date":"2025-07-23","punk":2557,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.531,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0834,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55}],"summary":["Estimate 29.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.2 to 32.6 ETH, 2σ range 24.9 to 35.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Mole -7%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6514","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}