{"punk":6580,"name":"CryptoPunk #6580","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6580","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6580.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Mohawk Dark","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":35.5623,"usd":75511,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.4183,"high_eth":39.0113,"low_usd":68835,"high_usd":82834},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.5522,"high_eth":42.7947,"low_usd":62749,"high_usd":90868},"sigma_log":0.0926,"multiple_of_floor":1.1698,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":35.5623,"usd":75511,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.4183,"high_eth":39.0113,"low_usd":68835,"high_usd":82834},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.5522,"high_eth":42.7947,"low_usd":62749,"high_usd":90868},"sigma_log":0.0926,"multiple_of_floor":1.1698,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":20,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":20,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":20,"beta":0.1822,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.1},{"pct":-5.2,"beta":-0.0534,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":18.8},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0792,"term":"attr:Mohawk Dark","label":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53,"weighted_sales":13.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-15","block":8555658,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":25.3333},{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-12-21","block":9141109,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":24.6486},{"eth":0.42,"date":"2020-01-01","block":9196329,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":118,"adjusted_eth":29.693},{"eth":0.59,"date":"2020-01-17","block":9297672,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":146,"adjusted_eth":28.025},{"eth":5.27,"date":"2020-12-29","block":11551083,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":30.2851},{"eth":22,"date":"2021-04-09","block":12204323,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":35.2}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":8863,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.205,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-03-16","punk":8863,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4861,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.45,"date":"2026-01-03","punk":9465,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6261,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":110,"date":"2025-11-23","punk":3720,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":111.8769,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.69,"date":"2025-07-26","punk":8960,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9288,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.36,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":8863,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.6877,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.1,"date":"2025-06-29","punk":8987,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":32.8248,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-06-14","punk":8987,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":35.1445,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0931,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 35.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.4 to 39.0 ETH, 2σ range 29.6 to 42.8 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Chinstrap -5%, Mohawk Dark -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6580","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}