{"punk":6585,"name":"CryptoPunk #6585","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6585","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6585.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Messy Hair","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":38.4944,"usd":81737,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.224,"high_eth":43.2976,"low_usd":72669,"high_usd":91935},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4274,"high_eth":48.7002,"low_usd":64608,"high_usd":103407},"sigma_log":0.1176,"multiple_of_floor":1.2663,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":38.4944,"usd":81737,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.224,"high_eth":43.2976,"low_usd":72669,"high_usd":91935},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4274,"high_eth":48.7002,"low_usd":64608,"high_usd":103407},"sigma_log":0.1176,"multiple_of_floor":1.2663,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":20,"beta":0.1822,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.1},{"pct":-5.2,"beta":-0.0534,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":18.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-11-07","block":8891623,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":36.48},{"eth":4.17,"date":"2021-01-22","block":11703135,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":95,"adjusted_eth":31.8513},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-07-03","block":12756189,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":325,"adjusted_eth":36.0882},{"eth":96.99,"date":"2021-11-14","block":13615775,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":315,"adjusted_eth":33.8908},{"eth":109.95,"date":"2021-11-15","block":13620856,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":57,"adjusted_eth":38.866},{"eth":72,"date":"2022-01-24","block":14068016,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":32.9242},{"eth":89.95,"date":"2022-03-12","block":14368623,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":142,"adjusted_eth":38.842},{"eth":59,"date":"2022-06-18","block":14985892,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":82,"adjusted_eth":29.1405},{"eth":34.5,"date":"2024-08-29","block":20634342,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":184,"adjusted_eth":34.9833},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-03-11","block":22026613,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":291,"adjusted_eth":35.6343}],"comparables":[{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-12","punk":3758,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.6154,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37.69,"date":"2026-10-07","punk":9706,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.8366,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1308,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2286,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.001,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7783,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.069,"date":"2026-06-12","punk":9706,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.23,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.69,"date":"2025-11-03","punk":8295,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.5875,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":64,"date":"2025-05-26","punk":8619,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.5815,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1724,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":65}],"summary":["Estimate 38.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.2 to 43.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.4 to 48.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Chinstrap -5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6585","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}