{"punk":6654,"name":"CryptoPunk #6654","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6654","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6654.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Front Beard Dark","Bandana","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":33.3935,"usd":70906,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7826,"high_eth":36.2258,"low_usd":65362,"high_usd":76920},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3758,"high_eth":39.2985,"low_usd":60251,"high_usd":83444},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0985,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":33.3935,"usd":70906,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7826,"high_eth":36.2258,"low_usd":65362,"high_usd":76920},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3758,"high_eth":39.2985,"low_usd":60251,"high_usd":83444},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0985,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.2,"beta":0.0972,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":87.6},{"pct":-7.2,"beta":-0.075,"term":"attr:Front Beard Dark","label":"Front Beard Dark","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":13},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0355,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":13.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.59,"date":"2020-05-09","block":10034768,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":32.6109},{"eth":0.8,"date":"2020-05-22","block":10114622,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":24.32},{"eth":1.04,"date":"2020-09-11","block":10840752,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":21,"adjusted_eth":22.9101},{"eth":18.9,"date":"2021-04-09","block":12206520,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":217,"adjusted_eth":30.24},{"eth":78,"date":"2021-08-25","block":13095914,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":30.1105},{"eth":87,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13104981,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":28.7478},{"eth":120,"date":"2021-09-28","block":13314648,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":67,"adjusted_eth":33.9349},{"eth":100,"date":"2021-10-24","block":13477937,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":74,"adjusted_eth":32.0169},{"eth":135,"date":"2021-11-02","block":13535291,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":212,"adjusted_eth":43.2455}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.88,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.263,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.86,"date":"2026-08-31","punk":9065,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.3262,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.38,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":9065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9263,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.97,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":9065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1748,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.48,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":1112,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":49.3567,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5362,"date":"2026-01-24","punk":2457,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2973,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-01-12","punk":7950,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3379,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.1,"date":"2026-01-02","punk":2947,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4334,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0302,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":48}],"summary":["Estimate 33.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.8 to 36.2 ETH, 2σ range 28.4 to 39.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Front Beard Dark -7%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6654","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}