{"punk":6953,"name":"CryptoPunk #6953","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/6953","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/6953.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Frown","Muttonchops","Shaved Head"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":32.1191,"usd":68200,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.6461,"high_eth":34.7983,"low_usd":62949,"high_usd":73889},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3636,"high_eth":37.701,"low_usd":58102,"high_usd":80052},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0565,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":32.1191,"usd":68200,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.6461,"high_eth":34.7983,"low_usd":62949,"high_usd":73889},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.3636,"high_eth":37.701,"low_usd":58102,"high_usd":80052},"sigma_log":0.0801,"multiple_of_floor":1.0565,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":45,"ask_usd":95550,"z":4.21,"z_text":"4.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-09-22T19:53:47.000Z","days_listed":47},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1197,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":65},{"pct":-9.2,"beta":-0.0964,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.3},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0756,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":19.5,"date":"2021-04-09","block":12202465,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":20,"adjusted_eth":31.2},{"eth":19.8,"date":"2021-04-17","block":12259680,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":84,"adjusted_eth":30.2472},{"eth":19.45,"date":"2021-07-11","block":12804161,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":31.3012},{"eth":118.27,"date":"2021-08-31","block":13130315,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":69,"adjusted_eth":31.2671},{"eth":75.5,"date":"2022-08-08","block":15301968,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":92,"adjusted_eth":30.8081},{"eth":73.68,"date":"2022-08-14","block":15338725,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":51,"adjusted_eth":32.021},{"eth":40,"date":"2024-04-12","block":19641162,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":187,"adjusted_eth":29.1397},{"eth":55.97,"date":"2025-08-11","block":23115167,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":325,"adjusted_eth":31.0151},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-01-03","block":24154441,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":97,"adjusted_eth":31.2181}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9901,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.16,"date":"2026-09-09","punk":2167,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6213,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.33,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":2167,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7173,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.25,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":2167,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7368,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-10","punk":9110,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5831,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.99,"date":"2025-11-26","punk":8671,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.6405,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.5,"date":"2025-11-19","punk":1947,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9766,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":58,"date":"2025-11-18","punk":9816,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":56.9693,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0087,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":39}],"summary":["Estimate 32.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 34.8 ETH, 2σ range 27.4 to 37.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Muttonchops -9%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/6953","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}