{"punk":7104,"name":"CryptoPunk #7104","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7104","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7104.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Messy Hair","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":29.9886,"usd":63676,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.435,"high_eth":31.6271,"low_usd":60377,"high_usd":67155},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.9619,"high_eth":33.3551,"low_usd":57249,"high_usd":70824},"sigma_log":0.0532,"multiple_of_floor":0.9865,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":29.9886,"usd":63676,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.435,"high_eth":31.6271,"low_usd":60377,"high_usd":67155},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.9619,"high_eth":33.3551,"low_usd":57249,"high_usd":70824},"sigma_log":0.0532,"multiple_of_floor":0.9865,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0224,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":111,"weighted_sales":13.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":17,"date":"2021-05-11","block":12412937,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":154,"adjusted_eth":32.3},{"eth":19.99,"date":"2021-07-16","block":12840835,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":30.5375},{"eth":23.99,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12929843,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":28.1364},{"eth":52,"date":"2025-07-31","block":23041725,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":140,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":52.99,"date":"2025-08-02","block":23050704,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":144,"adjusted_eth":29.8369}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.5,"date":"2025-11-19","punk":4700,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0268,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.8,"date":"2025-10-26","punk":5869,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2441,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.5,"date":"2025-08-05","punk":7155,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9903,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50.5,"date":"2025-08-04","punk":7155,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.8097,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.4,"date":"2025-07-21","punk":7155,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7173,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-03-23","punk":9881,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.928,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.8889,"date":"2025-01-03","punk":9881,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.746,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2025-01-02","punk":9881,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6094,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0224,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48}],"summary":["Estimate 30.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.4 to 31.6 ETH, 2σ range 27.0 to 33.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7104","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}