{"punk":7281,"name":"CryptoPunk #7281","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7281","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7281.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mohawk Thin","Cigarette","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-09","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-10T00:20:34.964Z","fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"estimate":{"eth":27.8598,"usd":59335,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.9568,"high_eth":31.1005,"low_usd":53152,"high_usd":66237},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.3562,"high_eth":34.7182,"low_usd":47614,"high_usd":73942},"sigma_log":0.11,"multiple_of_floor":0.9164,"n1_eth":32.4045,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-10T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":27.8598,"usd":59335,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.9568,"high_eth":31.1005,"low_usd":53152,"high_usd":66237},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.3562,"high_eth":34.7182,"low_usd":47614,"high_usd":73942},"sigma_log":0.11,"multiple_of_floor":0.9164,"n1_eth":32.4045,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"728c3193d57ea933ec2a7600f3401cc44890a385caf964a7673bb4b4823d6ca8"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T10:04:35.000Z","block":26383794,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1159,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2129.7699825150853,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-10T10:04:35.000Z","block":26383794,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1159,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-10","eth":30.4,"public_asks":743,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.4,"beta":0.0434,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-10.7,"beta":-0.1133,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":10.7},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.0812,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65,"weighted_sales":6.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-07-19","block":8182392,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":121,"adjusted_eth":26.0571},{"eth":0.42,"date":"2019-12-30","block":9184399,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":98,"adjusted_eth":29.0182},{"eth":0.46,"date":"2020-01-04","block":9215906,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":272,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":0.65,"date":"2020-01-19","block":9310239,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":171,"adjusted_eth":29.0588},{"eth":0.68,"date":"2020-01-30","block":9383693,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":13,"adjusted_eth":35.0373},{"eth":3.3,"date":"2020-09-24","block":10927891,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":37.8566},{"eth":4.93,"date":"2021-01-29","block":11753322,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":20,"adjusted_eth":30.6487},{"eth":24.8,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12362395,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":88,"adjusted_eth":36.9207},{"eth":16.66,"date":"2021-05-11","block":12413009,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":194,"adjusted_eth":31.654},{"eth":19.49,"date":"2021-07-18","block":12848000,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":219,"adjusted_eth":29.9998},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-18","block":12848030,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-21","block":12868373,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":250,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.22,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":5450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1938,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.67,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":5450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3986,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.25,"date":"2026-04-08","punk":5450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":2451,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6656,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.6549,"date":"2025-05-23","punk":2451,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.551,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.9,"date":"2025-05-18","punk":2451,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9433,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-04-09","punk":3713,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.3412,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-02-11","punk":3713,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":34.6204,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1511,"type_multiple":{"sales":770,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0659,"median_multiple":1.0659},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":111}],"summary":["Estimate 27.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.0 to 31.1 ETH, 2σ range 22.4 to 34.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-09).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-09.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (770 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +4%, Mohawk Thin -11%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7281","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}