{"punk":7540,"name":"CryptoPunk #7540","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7540","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7540.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Front Beard Dark","Messy Hair","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":35.3904,"usd":75146,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.3001,"high_eth":38.7763,"low_usd":68584,"high_usd":82335},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4797,"high_eth":42.4861,"low_usd":62595,"high_usd":90212},"sigma_log":0.0914,"multiple_of_floor":1.1642,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":35.3904,"usd":75146,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.3001,"high_eth":38.7763,"low_usd":68584,"high_usd":82335},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4797,"high_eth":42.4861,"low_usd":62595,"high_usd":90212},"sigma_log":0.0914,"multiple_of_floor":1.1642,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":420.69,"ask_usd":893267,"z":27.08,"z_text":"27.1σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-06-25T19:22:18.000Z","days_listed":1597},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1197,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":65},{"pct":-7.2,"beta":-0.075,"term":"attr:Front Beard Dark","label":"Front Beard Dark","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":13}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.29,"date":"2017-07-22","block":4059081,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":4.5,"date":"2020-10-17","block":11075314,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":233,"adjusted_eth":31.0909},{"eth":7.89,"date":"2021-01-27","block":11738663,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":20,"adjusted_eth":48.1639},{"eth":23,"date":"2021-03-01","block":11953567,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":189,"adjusted_eth":31.0756},{"eth":81,"date":"2021-08-25","block":13095492,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":31.2686},{"eth":87,"date":"2021-08-26","block":13099371,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":104,"adjusted_eth":34.5861},{"eth":120,"date":"2021-08-31","block":13132798,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":31.7245},{"eth":0.2,"date":"2022-01-01","block":13917114,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"below-half-floor","log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":0.0912}],"comparables":[{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-12","punk":3758,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.6154,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1308,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2286,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.001,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7783,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.69,"date":"2025-11-03","punk":8295,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.5875,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54,"date":"2025-07-30","punk":8798,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4903,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":64,"date":"2025-05-26","punk":8619,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.5815,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":62.42,"date":"2025-04-17","punk":8619,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.1802,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0883,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Messy Hair","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":65}],"summary":["Estimate 35.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.3 to 38.8 ETH, 2σ range 29.5 to 42.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Front Beard Dark -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7540","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}