{"punk":7646,"name":"CryptoPunk #7646","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7646","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7646.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Front Beard","Vampire Hair","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":28.1137,"usd":59695,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.2627,"high_eth":31.2866,"low_usd":53641,"high_usd":66432},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.7007,"high_eth":34.8175,"low_usd":48201,"high_usd":73929},"sigma_log":0.1069,"multiple_of_floor":0.9248,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":28.1137,"usd":59695,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.2627,"high_eth":31.2866,"low_usd":53641,"high_usd":66432},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.7007,"high_eth":34.8175,"low_usd":48201,"high_usd":73929},"sigma_log":0.1069,"multiple_of_floor":0.9248,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":58.1588,"ask_usd":123491,"z":6.8,"z_text":"6.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-10-06T00:09:35.000Z","days_listed":399},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.2,"beta":-0.0751,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":11},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1104,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.05,"date":"2018-06-12","block":5774162,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":47,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":0.55,"date":"2020-04-26","block":9950962,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":32.1538},{"eth":2.95,"date":"2020-09-14","block":10862246,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":200,"adjusted_eth":46.2268},{"eth":5.25,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10950304,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":174,"adjusted_eth":27.5648},{"eth":12,"date":"2021-02-16","block":11870491,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":43.4286},{"eth":17,"date":"2021-06-20","block":12668486,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":130,"adjusted_eth":34.6149},{"eth":18,"date":"2021-06-22","block":12685902,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":13,"adjusted_eth":42.0923},{"eth":28.49,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12930046,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":28.8795},{"eth":48.5,"date":"2025-10-04","block":23506431,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":30.1513},{"eth":48.47,"date":"2025-10-06","block":23515058,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"relay-same-block","log_index":42,"adjusted_eth":30.2564},{"eth":48.4656,"date":"2025-10-06","block":23515058,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":46,"adjusted_eth":30.2537}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.25,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2401,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.75,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.74,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-03-25","punk":2412,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5272,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2025-11-17","punk":7341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2025-02-03","punk":9026,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4533,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-01-24","punk":9026,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4556,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2024-12-08","punk":6435,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0152,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.45,"date":"2024-11-16","punk":7332,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7915,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1419,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":65}],"summary":["Estimate 28.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.3 to 31.3 ETH, 2σ range 22.7 to 34.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Front Beard -7%, Vampire Hair -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7646","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}